Georgia Won’t Flip Until 2048, *Maybe* 2028

That emerging Democratic majority in Georgia due to massive demographic shifts we’ve been talking about for more than a decade now still isn’t close.

At least, that’s what Real Clear Politics’ senior elections analyst predicts.

Yesterday, Sean Trende crunched some numbers using Nate Silver’s “Demographic Calculator” for GA, AZ and TX . (The reason for those three states and his conservative assumptions are explained in the post).

The numbers say 2048 is when Georgia will become a Democratic state again. If immigration doubles, the flip will take place in 2028.

I have to agree with him. As he points out, the PVI for Georgia changed very minimally from 2000 to 2012. Republicans have continued to win and add to their number of elected officials. Sometimes the races are closer than in the past but close only counts in horseshoes. There isn’t any real reason to replace the Republicans. By and large, things are going well here in Georgia, there haven’t been any truly major scandals (let’s see what happens with the Deal allegations) and most of the controversial legislation seems to be “controversial” only to people who would never vote Republican anyway.

via Peach Pundit – Georgia Politics.

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Polls, Polls, Polls

Vox Poluli has a new poll out and I would be derelict of my duty if I didn’t make some reference to skiers.

The quick and dirty? Perdue is up, and most definitely not in the statistical tie zone.

Vox Populi Polling released a new survey today that found Republican U.S. Senate candidate David Perdue holds a commanding 49 to 40 percent lead over his Democrat opponent Michelle Nunn, with 10 percent undecided. These results come in the midst of the accidental leak of an internal Nunn strategy memo, which will likely be used against her in television and radio ads.

“Our survey results show that David Perdue holds a commanding lead over Michelle Nunn after his recent primary victory,” said Vox Populi Pollster Brent Seaborn. “This is good news for Perdue who will likely see an uptick in his numbers after Republicans capitalize off of Nunn’s recent misfortune.”

For more details, check them out here. Just once, I wish these would come with a .dat file so I could play with the numbers in Stata.

via Peach Pundit – Georgia Politics.

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Carter using same playbook as Nunn

Yesterday’s Michelle Nunn memo leak suggests she shares a strategy ghost writer with Senator Jason Carter.

“Nunn and Carter are running on a shared platform of ‘Hey, Look At My Last Name and Don’t Ask Any Questions,’ said Deal for Governor spokesperson Jen Talaber. “As ticket mates and experts in ‘Dodge, Duck, and Redirect’ political communications, the Nunn and Carter camps share joint custody of the campaign playbook. “When it comes to talking about serious issues, they would just rather not. They can’t tell the truth about their liberal positions and liberal records, so they contort, twist and turn more than a Cirque du Soleil acrobat.

“The Nunn memo makes an observation that should win the ‘Pointing Out the Obvious Award’: ‘There will emerge issues on which the candidate will have to comment or take a position.’ Yet Senator Carter doesn’t seem to take this basic advice seriously. He can’t take a stand because on every major issue he has to choose between alienating his liberal Democratic base or the more conservative independents all statewide candidates need to win. On issue after issue, Carter tries to have it both ways. Georgians won’t fall for it.”

Obamacare: In 2011, when he was still new to representing one of the most liberal state Senate districts, he was pretty darn excited about Obamacare:

But when he started running for statewide office, unbridled enthusiasm for Obamacare wasn’t going to cut it. He now admits the law is “a mess,” but tries to have it both ways by supporting the “Arkansas model” hoping no one points out that his plan for Medicaid expansion is even more expensive than Obama’s.
Tax hikes: Carter says he won’t raise your taxes…right now. He voted for the amendment to cap state income taxes, but tried to have it both ways by missing the vote on final passage after the state Democratic Party chair said that Democrats who voted for it had “lost their dadgum minds.”
Second Amendment: Carter wants it both ways on guns. Carter voted for H.B. 60 to appeal to conservatives but openly admits he “talks about other issues” when confronted by opponents of the bill.
Cutting wasteful spending: Carter calls himself a “fiscal conservative,” but tries to have it both ways by calling for major new spending in education and Medicaid without ever detailing ONE significant cut to state government that he would advocate.
Charter schools: Carter sided with unions over parents and students when he voted against the charter school amendment (which passed handily in his own county), but tries to have it both ways by saying he supports charter schools.
Unaccompanied minors in Georgia: Carter knows he can’t tell the truth about how the president’s failed immigration policies have put these children in terrible danger. His silence on the humanitarian crisis that is directly affecting the governance of this state is deafening. He tries to have it both ways by redirecting the issue to the governor’s support in Congress for a bill to stop child sex trafficking. This issue is about smuggling children, not trafficking, and this crisis was caused because the president’s executive orders have sent a clear message to other countries that the United States won’t enforce its immigration laws.
Education: Carter supported Gov. Deal’s conservative budgets that increased education funding every year, but now tries to have it both ways by attacking Gov. Deal for the budgets he supported.
“Proudly squirms” over grandfather’s support: Carter refuses to say if he agrees with his grandfather’s position that Israel should pull its troops out of Gaza, even as Hamas has broken one ceasefire after another. Carter doesn’t want to be associated with his grandfather’s unpopular views in Georgia, but he wants it both ways by using the former president to fund-raise among liberals in his Washington, New York, Hollywood and his hometown, Chicago.

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Illegal Aliens from Failed Socialist Economies or War Refugees?

As our government is insanely arranging flights at taxpayer expense for Honduran children so that they don’t have to make a dangerous trek across Mexico and pay coyotes $5,000 to invade our country illegally, their president is smiling, making no excuses for his inept and corrupt administration or the fact that this “refugee” airlift will encourage a continuous flow of illegal immigration to grow the ranks of Democrat voters in the U.S., moving large numbers of Hondurans and displacing American citizens.

A correspondent named Robert proposed a solution that the main stream media is not willing to discuss. He suggested that the illegal immigrant children now baptized “refugees” of war by the United Nations be reunited with their parents and guardians who should then be immediately arrested for child abuse and endangerment. Such parents should be placed on a watch list and never allowed to enter the United States, never be issued a visa, and never be permitted to apply for permanent residence or American citizenship.

Illegal alien “children” have been shuttled and resettled in our cities around the country for months now without the knowledge or vote of the local population. As Eleanor Holmes Norton, the representative for the District of Columbia, said, “you don’t have a right to know what is going on in government.”

I would like to think that, when it comes to taxpayer funds and communicable diseases, some of which are incurable, and to the safety of our neighborhoods from MS-13 gangs walking across the border without questions asked, the citizens of the United States who are footing the bill and suffering, have a right to know.

The citizens of Suitland, Maryland, should have known the whereabouts of illegal aliens dumped close to their neighborhood since six MS-13 illegal aliens stabbed to death Amos Jones, a homeless man.

Sending the 1,000 National Guardsmen to the southern border may help corral the flood of illegal aliens, transport them, and do surveillance. However, on Newsmax TV, Mark Krikorian, executive director of the Center for Immigration Studies, said, “They can’t actually arrest anybody. They can detain illegal immigrants temporarily if they find them, but only the Border Patrol can arrest people.” Unfortunately, the Border Patrol agents have been reassigned to diaper duty, bottle feedings, lice baths, “making sandwiches and filling out paperwork instead of trying to keep illegal immigrants and smugglers out.”

Butler County Sherriff Richard Jones was complaining about the flood of illegal aliens who are committing crimes and bringing drugs into his county. A teenaged illegal alien molested an elderly lady and an 8-year-old girl. Violence is on the rise even though his Ohio county is so far away from the border with Mexico. Butler County spends “eight to ten million dollars each month on welfare programs, which he called ‘free stuff,’ and said that’s ‘some of the reason that they come here.’”

New Jersey residents were so upset about the 1504 illegal alien children dumped in their state that they are organizing protests in Trenton, Morristown, and Middletown on October 24-25.

Boston organized the largest rally on Beacon Hill “against Obama’s illegal aliens.” Buzzpo.com reported 10,000 people who protested the dumping of illegal aliens in their city. And they are not children, most of them are teenagers, 15 or older.

According to the Justice Department’s Immigration Courts, 46 percent of illegal immigrant “children” do not show up for their court hearings, an estimated 46,000 out of the 100,000 who were apprehended in the last two years.

Alipac is reporting that schools are bracing for the impact the enrollment of at least 30,340 illegal children will have on their communities and the education of their own children. Bringing down averages and overwhelming poor schools are just the tip of the iceberg. Some cannot count to ten, are really sick with tuberculosis, have not been vaccinated, can’t turn on a computer because they’ve never seen one, are home sick, have been abused or molested during the trek across Mexico, and do not speak English or Spanish, they speak Mam, a Mayan dialect spoken in Chiapas, Mexico, and parts of Guatemala.

The Daily Caller reported that Texas received 4,280 students, Virginia 2,234, Maryland 2,205, North Carolina 1,191, and New Jersey 1,504. Fairfax County, Virginia enrolled this year 5,192 Central American students, 22 percent more since 2011. Few speak English and perform several years below grade level. Some students are old enough to be in college.

The administration is calling the regime’s 290,000 illegal aliens immigrants even though immigrant is a term reserved for legal immigrants.

It is painfully obvious to anyone why cartels and terrorists are allowed to invade America – and they do not discriminate between political views, they steal, rob, and murder anybody with impunity. Are the millions of extra Democrat votes worth the loss of your country to ethnic displacement and replacement?

via Illegal Aliens from Failed Socialist Economies or War Refugees?.

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The Senate Race: A Whole Picture

Editor’s Note: This guest post was written by Stephen Greenway, who is a rising sophomore at the University of Georgia, majoring in International Affairs. Stephen is also the Secretary of the Georgia Association of College Republicans. It is his take on where the Georgia Senate race stands as we head toward the election in November.

Both Nunn and Perdue are Anti-Politicians

Despite their politically powerful families, neither Michelle Nunn nor David Perdue showed much interest in entering Georgia politics before Senator Chambliss announced his retirement in the spring of last year; in fact, both candidates seemed content with their respective work in philanthropy and business. Michelle was serving as the head of a national volunteer organization spearheaded by Bush 41 before she became the democratic nominee; David was a management guru who specialized in reviving large corporations prior to deciding to throw his hat, and part of his self-made fortune, into GOP politics. Both nominees have achieved a great deal in their lives outside of the gold dome and outside of Washington, and it will be thrilling to watch the two of them, both without voting records of any kind, offer their plan of action for our divided nation.

Perdue does what it takes to win

It was surprising to see David Perdue take on the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Georgia Republican Party, and win the nomination in the end. It’s obvious that Perdue’s team saw the pathway to 50.1% and went for it, disregarding county GOP straw polls and activists that they knew weren’t going to be on their side no matter what. Perdue didn’t win any big name endorsements, and he didn’t try to. He adopted the concerns of the people he was talking to at his campaign stops into his political platform, and targeted voters who would show up 9 weeks later to vote again. When attacking his opponent, he exposed not only figures that indicated Jack Kingston had fought for district earmarks, but he included data on other members of the Georgia congressional delegation, including former congressman Nathan Deal. He defied the rules, pissed off the party elite, and won.

Nunn will have to speak out

Michelle Nunn easily won her Democratic primary back in May. Leading up to the Republican runoff, Nunn has been busy raising cash and growing her statewide campaign infrastructure. With the general election matchup now set, Nunn will have to speak more clearly about her policy stances and draw clear contrasts between herself and David Perdue. In the past, she has been criticized for avoiding taking positions on issues of controversy and national importance.

With the national media tagging Georgia’s Senate Election as “the race to watch,” Nunn will have to show boldness and unveil the essences of her candidacy. She will undoubtedly attack Perdue’s business record, charging that he is an out-of-touch Romney who has spent his life in pursuit of corporate profits. But she should tread cautiously. Nunn herself was raised in Washington, D.C. Her Perry, GA roots are shallow, and she’s much more associated with Midtown, Atlanta than with the peanut farms of rural Georgia. If she pushes the “too rich and too-out-of-touch” card too hard, it could backfire on her campaign.

Truth be told, there’s no good ole boy or hometown country girl in this race. It’s a sprint between two ivy leaguers and two people who have used their life experience, instead of their political expertise, to win over an incumbent-exhausted electorate.

What kind of race will this be in October?

It is the joy of many politicos to break down each election cycle and try to draw grand conclusions about our nation’s political compass from the races. However, this year’s results have been scattered. From the outcomes of the primaries, there is no neat analysis of where Democrats and Republicans stand in the eyes of the public.

I truly believe the country is in a flux of doubt and cynicism about our world and our government’s ability to deal with extremely complex policy problems that involve billions and affect millions. The outflow of bureaucratic failures from the Obama administration has created cynicism about our national future and disenchantment with both parties. Apolitical citizens have tuned out; the politically engaged are digging in and drifting to opposite extremes.

Where is the silent majority? And who do they support? What kind of government do they wish to have? It is unlikely that Georgia’s Senate Race will reveal all the answers, but it is certain that Georgia will be the battle field on which both sides compete in an election in which the vast majority of voters don’t believe that voting will make a difference. The candidate that convinces Georgians otherwise will win.

via Peach Pundit – Georgia Politics.

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Michelle Nunn’s Campaign Plan

A leaked document gives the public a look.

By Eliana Johnson

Michelle Nunn can come across as a “lightweight,” “too liberal,” not a “real Georgian.” While she served as CEO for the Points of Light Foundation, the organization gave grants to “inmates” and “terrorists.” And her Senate campaign must feature images of her and her family “in rural settings with rural-oriented imagery” because the Atlanta-based candidate will struggle to connect with rural voters.

These may sound like attacks from the Senate candidate’s Republican rival, but in fact, those are a few of the concerns expressed in her own campaign plan, which sources say was posted online briefly in December and appears to have been drafted earlier that month. Drawing on the insights of Democratic pollsters, strategists, fundraisers, and consultants, the document contains a series of memos addressed to Nunn and her senior advisers.

From all appearances, the document was intended to remain confidential. It outlines the challenges inherent in getting Nunn, who grew up mostly in Bethesda, Md., elected to the Senate in a state with a large rural population. Her father, Sam Nunn, was elected to the Senate when she was six, and Michelle Nunn attended Washington’s prestigious National Cathedral School and then the University of Virginia and Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government before returning to Georgia to do nonprofit work and, now, to seek higher office.

The documents reveal the campaign’s most sensitive calculations. Much of the strategizing in the Georgia contest as is typical in southern politics, revolves around race. But the Nunn memos are incredibly unguarded. One is from Diane Feldman, a Democratic pollster and strategist who counts among her clients Minnesota senator Al Franken, South Carolina representative James Clyburn, and former Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. Feldman, who did not return calls seeking comment, is frank in her characterization of the demographic groups — Jews, Asians, African Americans, Latinos, and gays — that are essential to a Democratic victory. The Nunn campaign declined to comment about the document on the record.

The campaign’s finance plan draws attention to the “tremendous financial opportunity” in the Jewish community and identifies Jews as key fundraisers. It notes, however, that “Michelle’s position on Israel will largely determine the level of support here.” That’s a position she has yet to articulate — her message on the subject is marked “TBD” in the document — and Israel goes unmentioned on her campaign website.

Asians are also identified as key fundraisers. The community is described as “very tight,” one in which people work to “become citizens quickly.” Nunn’s strategists also say there is a “huge opportunity” to raise money from gays, bisexuals, and transgender individuals, who are described as having “substantial resources.”

via Michelle Nunn’s Campaign Plan | National Review Online.

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It’s grim: 911 Commission warns terrorism has entered ‘a new and dangerous phase’

970832_488326741248367_1495649440_nIt’s been a decade since the 9/11 Commission issued a comprehensive report about the terrorist attacks on American soil that “changed everything,” according to much of the public. The commission has a new follow-up. The 48-page report released Tuesday is grim, determined and factual, carrying warnings like “the struggle against terrorism is far from over – rather, it has entered a new and dangerous phase” and “counterterrorism fatigue and a waning sense of urgency among the public threaten U.S. security.”

The original commission, chaired by Thomas Kean and Lee Hamilton, reconvened in recent months, refocused on emerging threats and received considerable input from the likes of Director of National Intelligence James Clapper and CIA Director John Brennan from among a veritable constellation of luminaries in the intelligence community and beyond. But even as clandestine agencies seek a practical balance between public transparency and national security, the commission members fret the nation just doesn’t get it.

“Unfortunately, except for counterterrorism specialists in the government, most Americans did not see the connections among these events. The government did not effectively explain to the public the evil that was stalking us,” the report states.

But, of course, Americans can’t live in a constant state of alarm either. Judge for yourself. Download the new report here: Bipartisanpolicy.org.

Lawmakers are wrangling with such things, meanwhile. Three hearings on Capitol Hill, as well as the “terrorist march” on Iran.

“In the past year, the Iraqis have urgently requested additional U.S. counterterrorism assistance in the form of drone or airstrikes against terrorist camps, and the Obama administration declined,” says Rep. Edward R. Royce, chairman of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs. “Our hearing will examine the reasons behind the administration’s decision not to adequately address this problem months ago and what it plans to do going forward.”

via It’s grim: 911 Commission warns terrorism has entered ‘a new and dangerous phase’ – Washington Times.

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Deal To Fed: Talk To States Before Sending Unaccompanied Minors

Warticle-2317485-198EE4D3000005DC-809_640x802ith Congress still dithering on comprehensive immigration reform and the White House selectively enforcing (or totally ignoring) laws already on the books, states continue to be at the front line of having to deal with the immigration crisis absent any other solution. This Week Governor Rick Perry authorized 1,000 National Guard members to the boarder. Other states well inland continue to see or fear an imminent influx of minor children from Central America.

Governor Deal today sent out the following press release, indicating that Georgia and other states should be consulted before the Feds decide to direct minor refugees here, awaiting case adjudication and possible deportation.

Gov. Nathan Deal today sent this letter to ask the Obama administration to define the status of the Central American unaccompanied minors being held by federal authorities before asking private or state organizations to take them in.

“The state of Georgia has received no guidance from the federal government about what it plans to do with these children, even though we’ve read news reports that federal agencies have touched base with private charitable organizations in the state,” Deal said. “Before any children are sent to Georgia, we need to know their federal status and the plan for returning them to their parents or guardians. We are particularly interested to know if the children will be classified as ‘refugees,’ which would entitle them to all social welfare benefits available to Americans. Between Medicaid and school enrollment, this would come with a large price tag for Georgia taxpayers, and that’s unacceptable. Georgia already holds a disproportionately large refugee community, and I’ve worked with Democratic state representatives who asked me to help deal with the challenges of large refugee communities lacking job and language skills needed for self-sufficiency. These challenges are compounded when the refugees are children here without their families.

“Just this week, we learned from a federal agency that – unknown to us – from Jan. 1 to June 30 the U.S. Office of Refugee Resettlement released 1,154 unaccompanied children to sponsors – typically a parent or other family relative – residing in Georgia. I have also heard from state legislators in certain areas of the state of a recent surge in school enrollment of children from Central America.

“Our hearts and sympathy go out to the children who are the victims of this humanitarian crisis. This should not have happened and would not have happened if not for the Obama administration’s ill-conceived immigration policies. Circumventing the rule of law leads to unintended consequences, and that’s certainly the case here.

“We all want to see these children safety returned to their home countries. Before the federal government asks states to take in children who don’t have a family to live with here, we need to get serious questions answered about the children’s federal status and the government’s short- and long-term plans for resolving this issue.”

States can only do so much in trying to fix this problem. Somehow, a gridlocked if not broken Washington needs to get something done that solves our immigration issues once and for all.

via Deal To Fed: Talk To States Before Sending Unaccompanied Minors — Peach Pundit.

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Darth Vader is polling higher than all potential 2016 presidential candidates

On Tuesday FiveThirtyEight released the results of a poll of Americans’ opinions on the “Star Wars” universe. Not surprisingly, Jar Jar Binks is the most reviled character in the series. As Walt Hickey notes, the Gungan from Naboo posted lower favorability numbers than Emperor Palpatine, “the actual personification of evil in the galaxy.”

On the other hand, with a net favorability of -8, Jar Jar is considerably more popular than the U.S. Congress, which currently enjoys a net favorability rating of -65. In fact, the last time congressional net favorability was above that was February 2005. Incidentally this was just before the release date of “Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith,” which marked Jar Jar’s last appearance on the big screen.

But picking on Congress’ unpopularity is a bit like beating a dead tauntaun. After all, the legislative branch has been less popular than lice, brussels sprouts and Nickelback for some time now. What if we compared the favorability of 2016 presidential hopefuls and other political leaders with that of “Star Wars” characters?

Hillary Clinton currently has the highest net favorability of any 2016 White House contender. But to put her 19 percent favorable rating in context, she’s tied with Boba Fett, the bounty hunter who froze Harrison Ford in carbonite.

None of the 2016 hopefuls is polling higher than Darth Vader. You’ll recall that Vader chopped off his son’s arm and blew up an entire planet, but evidently in the eyes of the American public these are minor sins compared to Benghazi, Bridgegate and Gov. Rick Perry’s hipster glasses. These numbers suggest that if “Star Wars” were real and Darth Vader decided to enter the 2016 presidential race, he’d be the immediate front-runner.

via Darth Vader is polling higher than all potential 2016 presidential candidates – The Washington Post.

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The Hillary Code

BY: Washington Free Beacon Staff

July 22, 2014 5:00 am

What is Clinton trying to tell us?

Hillary Clinton, an elderly homeowner and blood clot survivor who many believe is the best candidate to challenge Joe Biden for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2016, has taken part in numerous interviews since leaving the Obama administration and promoting the release of her underwhelming memoir, Hard Choices.

An extensive, month-long Free Beacon analysis of these interviews has uncovered evidence suggesting that Clinton is using a form of code in an effort to communicate with the voting public.

It is not yet clear what Clinton is trying to tell us, and further analysis is ongoing. Preliminary observations point to Clinton’s repeated use of words and phrases commonly associated with the aged and infirm: “age,” “stroke,” “fall,” “hospital,” “brain injury,” among others.

Free Beacon researchers were able to spot the pattern using advanced algorithms developed in consultation with Koch Data and the National Security Agency. This post is the first in a 12-part series.

via The Hillary Code | Washington Free Beacon.

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